South Africa started a short time ago (1994) on the premise that a liberal democratic dispensation will be free and fair to all its citizens, thereby dispelling any notion of blood and revenge, unrest and instability. It worked.

Then the Polokwane apple-cart fell over and Jacob Zuma defeated Thabo Mbeki to establish the third reign of ANC political dominance. However, this time the premise of liberal democracy in a development state was overturned in favour of the Welfare State. The intention again, being to dispel any notion of blood, unrest and instability. It works because the Government now pays 16.5m people every single month. Call it salary, bonus, grant or social benefit - anything really.

The future beckons - however, questions are now being asked of the 4th reign expected in 2012. For example, in an age of sustainability, the obvious question is - How sustainable is this new Welfare State where 1 in 4 people pay tax?

Investigating the social contribution of a Welfare State, the argument mooted by Government is that it will improve productivity because an increase in inflation would be untenable for the poor. Since the SA Productivity Institute assumes that competitiveness will result from increased productivity, the business case for the Welfare State is indeed the SA increase in Global Competitiveness.

According to the World Economic Forum however, the parameter that would improve competitiveness is actually safety.

As a matter of fact, the SA Death rate is on the increase, suggesting a drop in current Competitiveness ratings. This will not be unexpected because the worst performing region in Africa is indeed Southern Africa - according to the African Development Bank. Just to confirm, Zambia's death rate is even worse that South African figures.

There is a relation between productivity and competitiveness, but that part of the equation unfortunately includes cost effectiveness. Which means that the much vaunted improvement in productivity of a Welfare State, would actually decrease competitiveness due to cost escalations, if the above graph is anything to go by.

This will again rear the ugly promise of instability, blood and unrest. Perhaps that is what the ANC foresee with every future election. However, if they were smart, they would just improve safety, it so much cheaper.